Value betting

Julia Goerges 2

2012-02-24T17:26:00.001Z

Julia has done us a favour in beating Wozniacki this afternoon so now we can look forward to the Dubai final against Radwanska tomorrow. Unfortunately Aggie beat Julia 6-1 6-1 in this year's Australian Open in their only meeting so the Polish player will start a warm favourite. It will be a good measure, perhaps, of where Goerges is now if she can do well in the final.

Given the thought that perhaps clay is still Goerges' best surface I see no harm in speculating:-

1 pt each-way Julia Goerges @ 50/1 to win the French Open with Betfred (1/2 odds 1,2). Also available with VC bet.

Julia Goerges

2012-02-23T23:02:00.001Z

I have watched Julie Goerges in a couple of her matches in Dubai this week. She started very slowly against the experienced Kuznetsova in the first round. She just couldn't cope with the pace of the court in the first set of that encounter, mistiming many of her shots. Once she got used to the court she upped the pace of her ground shots - taking out Kuzy in three.

After a comfortable win in the second round against Dellacqua she again came from behind to beat Hantuchova today in three. She looked completely different class to the veteran Slovakian (who has been playing well recently) in the final two sets.

Tomorrow she is up against the former number one Wozniacki, whom she famously took out in successive clay court tournaments in April/May last year to level their H2H at 2-2. In fact I always thought of Goerges as best on clay but the ferocity and accuracy of her ground shots, added to her powerful serve on this quicker surface, has been a revelation. If she takes her aggressive game to the "pusher" tomorrow she could overpower the Dane. Indeed I hope she can win the title and have backed her accordingly:-

2 pts Goerges to beat Wozniacki @ 9/4 with William Hill

2 pts Goerges to win Dubai tourney @ 6/1 with Totesport

(Check betfair for marginally better prices after commission at the time of writing)

Total four points invested.

Next England manager

2012-02-20T12:43:00.001Z

I have a gut feeling that Harry won't get or will not accept (if offered) the England job. This of course is contrary to overwhelming popular opinion.

Why would a man who will be 65 soon and has suffered ill-health want to take up such a poisoned chalice? He is in a tremendous position at Spurs and paid very handsomely. His contract at Tottenham is up for renewal in summer 2013 so any approach from England, if ultimately refused, would assist him in renegotiating his contract. In addition there is a buyout clause of £5m in his contract so the FA will have to pay a minimum of £8m+ if they want to prize him away from Daniel Levy's grasp (as he is paid £3m+ per annum).

I laid Harry @ 1.44 when the Capello announcement was made. So you haven't missed anything because you could lay him at a shorter price now (1.37 as I write).

The market seems clueless as to who might get the job if it's not Harry. Except that there has been a tiny move for Pep Guardiola who is now a best priced 10/1. I'm not suggesting a bet on Pep as the larger prices have been missed. But if you are thinking the same way as I am your options are to lay Harry @ 1.37 and/or have a small interest on Pep @ 10/1 with William Hill (only 7/2 with skybet).

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Santo

2012-02-20T10:09:00.001Z

Since I last posted on the Republican race Santo has moved 8% clear in Gallup's daily national tracking poll.

The key state for Santo is Michigan where the next Primary takes place on Feb 28. A new poll today shows Mitt closing the gap on what was a very healthy lead for our 18/1 poke for nominee. Santo is still 4% ahead in this poll however and has shown 6-10% ahead in other polls. Mitt is slight favourite to take Michigan around 4/6 with Santo available @ 11/10. Clearly the markets think Mitt's enormous advertising spend will be sufficient to turn around the Santo sentiment.

Also on Feb 28 a Primary takes place in Arizona. The latest poll shows Romney 8% ahead. There are some scandalous revelations overnight which could have an impact on the Romney campaign however. Also I understand a poll will be published tomorrow which is "good for Santorum".

Therefore I have had 3 pts @ 3/1 Santo for Arizona Primary with Stan James

Sent from my iPad

FA Cup update 2

2012-02-19T10:50:00.002Z

We had 16 pts in total bets on the FA Cup outright - spread across six teams. We are down to just two teams now but at least these two have qualified for the quarter finals. The bets still running are:

0.5 pt ew Everton @ 25/1

and more importantly:

2 pts ew Sunderland @ 50/1 and 0.5 pt ew Sunderland @ 66/1

The above are both currently a best priced 7/1. When the draw is made around 4pm today I will be hoping for a home draw for Sunderland as that I feel would be a huge advantage at this stage.

I have had a couple more bets today, trying to take advantage of the fact some bookmakers still offer 1/2 odds to reach the final. The bets placed today were:

1 pt ew Stoke @ 16/1 with Coral (1/2 odds 1,2)

0.5 pts ew Birmingham @ 66/1 with William Hill (1/2 odds 1,2)

Total invested 3 pts. Total FA Cup portfolio 19 points.

Next Premiership manager to leave

2012-02-19T10:32:00.000Z

I think Arsene Wenger may leave in the light of the last two very poor results.

I have had 1 pt @ 33/1 with Stan James that Wenger is next Premiership manager to leave.

If you cannot get this price with Stan J I would still recommend the 25/1 with William Hill

Safarova v Bartoli

2012-02-17T04:09:00.001Z

Lucie Safarova came through her match against Kuznetsova in straight sets yesterday. I was rather concerned pre-match as the market moved significantly in favour of the Russian. Thankfully, having been two set points down in the first set tie break, Lucie came through comfortably enough in the end.

Today she takes on Bartoli in the quarter finals, a player who holds a 4-1 HTH over her. However their two latest matches - both in 2011 - are split 1-1. The first Lucie won in straight sets and the second was an epic encounter at Eastbourne that Bartoli edged in the final set tie break.

Given the way Safarova has played so far this week I am tempted by Ladbrokes' 7/4. I would have priced her around the 5/4 mark.

Therefore I have had 3 pts @ 7/4 Safarova to beat Bartoli with Ladbrokes

Lucie is hot!

2012-02-15T22:00:00.001Z

I have always regarded Lucie Safarova as a streaky player. Today she played a magnificent match to take out "the pusher" Wozniacki. Aggressive throughout, despite losing the first set, she somehow found herself serving at 4-5 0-40 in the deciding set. Three very strong first serves brought her back level. The match concluded with a tie-break and from 0-2 Lucie eventually won it easily. Her serve was brilliant, she won 79% of first service points which included eight aces. On this form she should have the measure of Kuznetsova tomorrow. Can she go further? It could be Bartoli after that and then maybe a rejuvenated Stosur for a place in the final. However another Czech, Cetkovska could trouble the Aussie. The good news as far as each-way interest is concerned is that the world number one (and odds on favourite) Azarenka is in the other half of the draw.

The blog could be described as on a bit of a streak too. The bets we've had in February (that have been settled) have all produced winning returns. Specifically: 16.4, 9 and then 8.9 points profit today when our two selections in the 19:40 Kempton went past together in a photo finish. If you started following the blog in 2012 you are still a few points behind, however if you've been with the blog since the beginning (Dec '09) you are close to 700 points up!

Let's hope we can continue the current winning run with the following bets:

2 pts win Lucie Safarova to beat S Kuznetsova @ 5/4 with Paddy Power (13/10 VC if allowed a bet)

1.5 pts ew Lucie Safarova to win WTA Qatar @ 20/1 with totesport (1/2 odds 1,2)

0.5 pts ew Petra Cetkovska to win WTA Qatar @ 50/1 with totesport (1/2 odds 1,2)

Total staked six points.

Kempton 19:40, 7f

2012-02-15T08:45:00.001Z

Going to switch to a horse race today. Taking two against the field in the 7f contest at 19:40. Both bets are BOG so if they should drift in the market we will be on at SP:

2 pts win Chilli Green @ 4/1 with William Hill (also available at Lads)

0.5 pts ew Masai Moon @ 14/1 with William Hill (also available at PP)

Total 3 pts invested.

WTA - Paris indoor

2012-02-11T05:59:00.001Z

An impressive performance by Angelique Kerber Friday to take out world number three Sharapova in straight sets. Particularly as Masha had hammered her at the Australian Open. I think she now has a good chance to take the title here.

She plays Wickmayer in the semi today, the Belgian having come through a tough three-setter last night.

The other semi features Bartoli v Zakopalova. The French woman and tournament favourite looked exhausted after her three-set victory over Vinci, coming from 2-5 down to win 7-6 in the final set. It won't be an easy task against the Czech player today given the short recovery time.

I have had 3 pts win @ 3/1 Kerber to win the Paris tourney with Stan James.

Zarkandar

2012-02-06T18:04:00.001Z

Our only ante-post bet for Cheltenham Festival 2012 so far, Zarkandar (at 14/1 now 8/1 for the Champion Hurdle) runs in the Betfair Hurdle on Saturday. It has just been confirmed that Ruby Walsh can take the ride as his intended suspension will not apply on Saturday. (Because of the transfer of a Grade One race).

Zarkandar is going to be a short price favourite despite the competitive field.

I have had an interest with 3 pts win Zarkandar for the Betfair Hurdle @ 100/30 with Paddy P.

Incidentally with regard to the previous bet on Santo. PP restricted me to £4.57 and immediately cut the odds to 14/1. I then bet with W Hill who restricted me to £10 and immediately cut the price to 8/1. It's all very flattering but also very annoying that I can move markets with such small stakes.

However Ladbrokes still offer 16/1 at the time of writing.

Santo surge?

2012-02-06T15:25:00.000Z

We took some 18/1 Santorum to be the Republican nominee back on 2 January. Since then he drifted out to 66/1 or more and all looked lost. Gingrich suddenly became the man who was the main challenger to Romney and at one time was around the 9/4 mark to get the gig. He has now imploded and can be backed at 20/1 or bigger on betfair. So the question is do we think Romney is home and dry yet? He is trading close to 1/5 on betfair and much shorter with the fixed odds firms.

Yet the suspicion remains that Romney could get turned over by whoever emerges as the right-wing contender. There is a little bit of betting interest in Santo and his price for the Republican nominee has come back down to the 16/1 - 25/1 range.

There are elections in three states tomorrow and Santo is showing up at the head of affairs in the polls in two of the states. So if he does well tomorrow at the very least he could completely regain momentum from Gingrich as the main challenger to the hot favourite.

I'm sticking with our 18/1 bet and am not going to press up. Instead I am having a couple of points on him winding up as the Republican VP candidate. This is showing at 16/1 with W Hill, Lads and PP. (12/1 SJ)

Therefore I have had 2 pts win Santorum to be Republican VP candidate @ 16/1 with Paddy P

Next Lib Dem leader

2012-02-03T10:24:00.001Z

Well that looks like Chris Huhne is out of the running. The former second favourite in this market will be a big drifter now given this morning's news.

We have a long standing bet on Tim Farron being the next leader @ 9/1. He is generally a 6/4 chance.

Ed Davey has been brought into the cabinet to replace Huhne. He's worth a bet at S James' or W Hill's 14/1 for the leadership.

Therefore I have just had:

3pts @ 14/1 Ed Davey to be next Lib Dem leader with William Hill

Africa Cup of Nations

2012-02-03T10:13:00.001Z

The tournament has now reached the quarter-final stage. Looking at the results since 1996, with the exception of one year (2002), the four matches have always produced at least one match that has gone to extra-time.

In fact there is evidence that in recent years the matches have become more competitive. In the last tournament (2010) three of the four matches went to extra-time. At the last three tournaments (2010, 2008 and 2006) six of the 12 quarter-final affairs have finished all square after 90 minutes.

I have therefore placed the following bets today:

4 February

Zambia v Sudan 6 pts @ 5/2 draw with skybet

Ivory Coast v E. Guinea 4 pts @ 7/2 draw with W Hill

5 February

Gabon v Mali 5.5 pts @ 12/5 draw with skybet

Ghana v Tunisia 5.5 pts @ 12/5 draw with skybet

One draw will result in a maximum loss of three points. Two draws will put us in the money with a minimum profit of 15.7 pts.

Total staked 21 points.

Raising the Ba

2012-01-27T23:51:00.000Z

Senegal have surprisingly been knocked out of the African Nations Cup after just two group matches. This means Demba Ba will return to England a couple of weeks earlier than expected. It is anticipated that he will be back before next Wednesday, in time for Newcastle's away fixture at lowly Blackburn that evening. Wednesday is, of course, February 1st so the transfer window will have closed the previous night. In any case if Ba unexpectedly left Newcastle it would be for a top five club. A move seems unlikely at this late stage though.

Blackburn concede plenty of goals and they will not want to lose their top defender Samba. However the latter is far more likely to move than Ba and could even end up at Newcastle.

In the top goal scorer charts Ba is still in second place despite his absence for international duty. He is on 15 goals four behind Van Persie. Other players in double-figures are: Aguero 14; Rooney 13; Yakubu 12 and Dzeko 11.

When I backed Ba @ 25/1 in early November he had scored just eight Premiership goals. Looking at his TGS opposition then I made the case that Man City could continue to share the goals amongst Aguero, Dzeko and Balotelli. Their totals are now 14,11 and nine respectively. With Man City going slightly off the boil and Aguero a skinny price anyway it's worth swerving a MC player when considering the TGS winner. Of course Rooney is likely to be in the hunt and cannot be ruled out, something I can't say about Yakubu.

I think it's worth pressing our Ba bet with a further each-way wager. All the quarter odds first four has gone not surprisingly as VP is odds-on and therefore we are talking top three only. I'm still waiting for Van Persie to take some time out as it's rare for the Dutchman to play a full season!

I have had 2.5 pts ew Demba Ba TGS Prem League @ 14/1 with Paddy Power (1/5 odds 1,2,3).

Total staked five points.

Kempton AW bets

2012-01-26T11:32:00.001Z

Tennis looks like it's all gone pear-shaped after the defeat of Kim Clijsters in three sets to Vika last night.

As a consequence I have decided to concentrate on Kempton today and have three bets at the all-weather track as follows:

17:05 2 pt win Royal Acclamation @ 7/2 Ladbrokes (BOG)

19:35 1.5 pt win White Shift @ 10/1 Ladbrokes (BOG)

20:05 1.5 pt each-way Metropolitan Chief @ 9/1 W Hill (BOG)

Total 6.5 points staked

Berdych

2012-01-24T22:04:00.000Z

What a splendid match Berdych played against Nadal today. First of all he was trying to improve a horrendous HTH. It's now 11-3 to Nadal, the Spaniard having won their last ten encounters. Yet it took Nadal four and a quarter hours to put him away in four tight sets. Berdych won the first set and had a set point in the second set which he failed to convert. Oh how different it might have been if that volley had dropped in! Having said that Nadal never gives up.

To me he looked a much more mature player today. His serve was very impressive and unplayable at times. This renewed confidence may well be because of the shake up in his coaching arrangements. Certainly if I could play the game properly then this is how I would like to be able to play (aside from his occasional mental weakness of course!)

We had a nice touch on Berdych at Wimbledon in 2010 when the Czech player beat Federer in the quarters and Djoko in the semis. The latter victory was the only time in nine attempts he has beaten Djoko. Of course he came unstuck against Nadal in the final, where he looked very nervous to me. We had played the each-way @ 50/1 so we were rewarded @ 25/1 place money, enough for Coral to unfortunately no longer accept meaningful internet bets from me.

Well that's enough about the past - I've been looking at the Wimbledon 2012 prices and I see Ladbrokes quote a very generous 80/1. He seems to have had a very long career but he is still only 26. I have therefore had the following speculative punt:-

1pt each-way Tomas Berdych @ 80/1 with Ladbrokes (1/2 odds 1,2) to win Wimbledon 2012.

Makarova

2012-01-23T10:04:00.001Z

Yes she took out Serena in straight sets. However the American played a horrendous match. So forget about that form for the moment. In the previous round she beat Zvonereva in straight sets too, no mean achievement. In the round before that she had the audacity to take out our in-form hope Kanepi, also in straight sets.

Clearly a player in exceptional form even without the Serena scalp.

Next she will take on the winner of the Lisicki v Sharapova match which is currently one set all. Then a semi-final against Kvitova is the likely prize. She has met the Czech player once, going down in two tie-break sets at Eastbourne last year.

I have had 1.5pts each way @ 25/1 Makarova to win with W Hill (still1/2 odds to reach the final)

Total 3pts invested.

Santo Clause

2012-01-22T00:17:00.001Z

Just a week ago it looked like Romney would sweep to three consecutive state victories in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. Then two days ago the official certified result in Iowa was published and Santorum was declared the winner rather than Romney.

Some major bookmakers reacted quickly to payout Santo backers (having previously settled on Romney as the winner shortly after the provisional result was announced). These bookmakers included Will Hill, Ladbrokes and Bet365. Others, including betfair, are considering their positions. The settlement seems to hinge on the clause "official result" in bookmakers' rules. I don't think there is anyway that a win by eight votes, which was announced shortly after the provisional count, can be considered a final or official result. Bookmakers obviously settled in haste. The Iowa rules allowed until 18 January for the relevant paperwork to be submitted before the official result was calculated and announced, so surely all the remaining bookmakers who have yet to settle on Santo will be forced to do so.

I did not recommend a Santo bet in Iowa on the blog but did put him up @ 18/1 for the nomination. Unfortunately his support has drained away since Iowa and he was a huge price to win Carolina earlier today.

Things are looking a lot better for Newt Gingrich, however, who was a country mile behind Mitt a week ago. I put up Gingrich @ 9/2 for SC (now big odds on) and 18/1 for the nomination (currently no more than 3/1). If he should snatch Carolina from Mitt tonight then 18/1 for the nomination could be looking good: since 1980 the Republican winner in South Carolina has always gone on to take the Republican Nomination.

It's suddenly not so great for Mormon Mitt. Perhaps he will have to visit planet Kolob for inspiration. When I told my wife this evening that Mormons believe God lives on planet Kolob she said: "Pull the other one, I can see what it spells backwards"!

Republican candidate

2012-01-19T17:17:00.002Z

I remain convinced that the right-wing will get together after the South Carolina Primary and unite to put one candidate forward to beat Romney. I thought it was going to be Santorum that would fulfil this role but this looks increasingly unlikely. If Newt Gingrich wins or comes a reasonable second in S.C. (which looks on the cards) then Perry and Santorum need to drop out and pledge their support to Newt. We'll see soon enough if this happens.

Meanwhile I have had 1pt win Newt Gingrich to be Republican Nominee @ 18/1 with Skybet.

Australian Open - men

2012-01-15T20:17:00.001Z

Some strange betting activity on the Fed quarter today. For no obvious reasons (other than my widely read blog of course!!) the prices on JMD Potro and B Tomic have contracted significantly. The Argentinian is now generally 3/1 from 4/1 for the quarter and the Australian is 10/1 tops from 18/1 in a place and 16/1 generally. Perhaps The Fed's back is worse than is commonly known? We shall see.

I am having one more bet in the men's outright. Our old friend Berdych is in Nadal's quarter and looks to have a decent draw to reach a possible quarter final match with the Spanish number one. He has been in good form down under winning the Hopman Cup for the Czech Republic with Kvitova. Who knows, should he reach the semi he might be playing Delpo or Tomic for a place in the final. Incidentally it's forecast to be in the 90s for the first couple of days which would be no help to the (apparently) well drawn Kvitova who suffers from asthma.

I have had:-

1.5pts each way Tomas Berdych @ 40/1 with Paddy Power (1/2 odds 1,2)

Total three points invested.

Australian Open - quarter betting 2

2012-01-14T18:33:00.000Z

Looking at the ladies' draw I have had two quarter winning bets. The first bet is in the third quarter and concerns the inform Kaia Kanepi. The Estonian, who we have backed for the tournament outright is a top priced 11/2 with Ladbrokes to reach the semi final. Serena Williams is the short priced favourite to win this section but has had an interrupted preparation so we have to hope she gets turned over in the first week. Several others in this quarter have had injury issues so I have had:

4 pts Kaia Kanepi to win third quarter @ 11/2 with Ladbrokes

The other bet is very speculative but mirrors a successful 33/1 poke we had at Wimbledon last year. Mona Barthel is the latest German sensation. She came through the qualifiers to win the Hobart title - her first - hammering Wickmayer (who had been playing well up to that point) in the final. Mona is priced between 20/1 and 33/1 to win the second quarter. However skybet will lay you 33/1 a non-seed to win this quarter which of course includes the low ranked German.Therefore I have had:

1pt win "any other player" to win second quarter @ 33/1 with skybet

Total invested five points.

Australian Open - quarter betting

2012-01-14T13:20:00.000Z

I have had a good look at the quarter betting for the men's tournament this morning. (i.e. backing a player to reach the semi-final). As you know I have backed Federer to win the event and I am regretting it somewhat as he has drifted in the betting since the wager.

I am now not very confident about Federer's prospects and have found a little bit of value in his quarter. Although JM Del Potro has not had a great preparation I think he is value at Coral's 4/1 to win this sector. Also I think Tomic has an outside shot at reaching the semis. (He just won the Kooyong Classic beating Mardy Fish in the final). I have had the following:

4pts win JM Del Potro to win third quarter @ 4/1 with Coral

1pt win Tomic to win third quarter @ 16/1 with William Hill

Tomic is available @ 18/1 with VC if you can get a bet on there, however I will only post bets at prices I am able to take myself.

Total stake five points.

You may also be interested in some of the outright prices "available" at Sportingbet. Well they are not available to me (reasons can be found on my website). The odds compiler has obviously taken the view that no player outside the top four can reach the final. Hence you will find 22/1 Delpo 25/1 Tsonga and 150/1 Tomic all of which warrant closer inspection as each way propositions.

I may blog a ladies' quarter bet later today, but that's all for now.

Going to Carolina

2012-01-12T17:30:00.001Z

Unfortunately it looks like Mitt Romney is going to win the Republican Nomination. Our man Santo is on the drift and can now be backed at double figures for the South Carolina gig. I am having one small last shot at derailing the Mormon by having a bet on the geriatric Newt Gingrich to win the S. Carolina Primary.

I have had 1pt win N Gingrich for SC Primary @ 9/2 with Stan James

Oh and by the way God lives on a planet called Kolob. This is what Mormons believe. Rather worrying isn't it?

Sydney Open

2012-01-09T13:59:00.001Z

Just had a look through the draw for the above. A very strong field. At least it was until Sam and Vera both lost tamely overnight. They were both in Li Na's half of the draw. The top half of the draw is still very strong: Woza, Petko, A.Rad, Vika, Janko and Bartoli. In the bottom half Li Na has a realistic chance of reaching the semi-finals where she is seeded to meet the tournament favourite Kvitova (generally a 2/1 chance). I think it's worth taking a chance with an each-way bet on Li Na as follows:

2pts each-way Li Na @ 12/1 with Totesport (1/2 odds 1,2) for the Sydney Open

and also 0.5pt ew Schiavone @ 22/1 with Bet365.

Schiavone is also in the bottom half of the draw and took care of Sam in straight sets.

Total five points staked.

FA Cup update

2012-01-09T08:46:00.001Z

In the end the odds looked so attractive to me that I ended up backing six teams each-way for the FA Cup! Fortunately all six teams won their third round ties at the weekend. Following the fourth round draw there has been some significant changes in the betting. We had a bit of luck when Liverpool v Man U came out of the hat and also when most of our selections were drawn apart aside from the Everton v Fulham tie.

The two biggest wagers were on the North East sides Newcastle and Sunderland and each has been assigned non-Premiership opposition in the fourth round. Newcastle are generally 16/1 whereas you won't get any better than 20/1 Sunderland now.Early days but a good start.

Aus Open update

2012-01-09T08:19:00.001Z

You could argue that we've over staked in the women's event with bets on four players. However I was pleased to see Li Na win her opening match in Sidney, where she is defending champion, by a comfortable score line of 6-0 6-3. This will give her confidence and the 20/1 for the big one, which we've taken may disappear soon.

As for the men we have a poor looking bet on Federer who has drifted alarmingly on betfair to 6.4. It's not looking good for the Swiss maestro. Other than the Fed bet we have a small each-way on Tomic who was comprehensively beaten by Murray and received injury treatment in the process.

I can't help thinking that Tsonga could make a significant impact this year. Aside from Federer he has been the form player of the last three months. The former Aus finalist is still generally a 20/1 shot and warrants each-way support at that price.

I have had 3pts win 2pts place Tsonga @ 20/1 with Totesport

I have also had a speculative each-way double with the same firm:

0.5pt ew double Tsonga, Li Na both @ 20/1 Totesport (1/2 odds 1,2)

Total invested six points.

Santo

2012-01-07T23:21:00.001Z

Having lost by only eight votes in Iowa, Santorum has gained the momentum we expected. However he is likely to get thoroughly chinned in the Primary in New Hampshire next week where Romney has a house and a huge following.

Things could be different when the circus moves on to South Carolina on 21 January. The state has a large evangelical population who are becoming increasingly attracted to Santo. The latest poll shows Romney on 27% with Santo not that far behind on 24% and likely to close. Ladbrokes say he's 11/4 to win whereas Stan James reckon he's a 5/1 chance.

Therefore I've had 2pts Santorum to win S. Carolina Primary @ 5/1 with Stan James.

Ladies' Australian Open

2012-01-07T13:10:00.002Z

We are already involved here - particularly with Clijsters who is not a 100% certain runner. Plus we have small bets on two other runners. I am inclined to add another one though. I thought Kanepi looked so impressive this morning. She looks a lot fitter than I remember seeing her in 2011. Clearly she has lost a lot of weight!

She can now have a week's rest and undergo some gentle practice before the big one.

If her big serve is working you'd give her a shot at the title particularly with the injury scares over some of the principals. I have been rather slow in picking up on her so the big prices have all dried up unfortunately.

Nevertheless I have had 3pts win, 1pt place K Kanepi @ 20/1 with William Hill for the Aus Open (1/2 odds 1,2).

Total 4pts staked.

Bookmaker value in FA Cup

2012-01-07T09:03:00.001Z

Yesterday William Hill made sure they were best price on EVERY team playing in the FA Cup. This was a successful strategy employed last year.

Ladbrokes has responded by topping W Hill on many teams this morning. There is terrific value right now. I remain convinced that given the results we have seen against the top teams in recent weeks, a lesser ranked team could win the trophy this year.

Therefore I have successfully navigated Ladbrokes' dreadful mobile site this morning to place more bets as follows:

1pt ew Fulham @ 66/1

1pt ew Aston Villa @ 40/1

0.5pt ew Sunderland @ 66/1

0.5pt ew Newcastle @ 50/1

0.5pt ew Everton @ 25/1

All with Ladbrokes, total staked seven points.

Australian Open

2012-01-06T14:47:00.000Z

What a disaster for our ante-post bets so far. Clijsters retired with a left hip injury during her semi-final in Brisbane this morning and then Federer pulled out of the Doha event at the semi-final stage. You may know that Federer has never retired during a top level match throughout his professional career. In addition he has only retired on one previous occasion from a tournament once it is in progress. So his back must be pretty bad.

At this stage both are hopeful of competing in the first grand slam but equally both are on the drift in the markets.

In the ladies' event we now have question marks over leading contenders Serena W and Kim C. In addition home hope Stosur lost tamely the other day to a player who had previously never won a set. So a speculative bet now in case the field should "cut up":

2pts win Li Na @ 20/1 with Paddy Power (NRNB)

The Chinese is a streak player and can get on a roll. Currently playing ok in the Hopman Cup, and, of course, was the beaten finalist last year.

In the men's event I think home hope Tomic is worth a speculative bet:

1pt ew Tomic @ 80/1 with 888.com (also available at Blue Square and Boyles)

Tomic plays Murray tomorrow and is unlikely to beat him. However if he does he will be 25s or 33s for the big one.

Total four points invested.

Kim Clijsters

2012-01-06T09:02:00.000Z

As Kim is about to start her semi-final in Brisbane against Hantuchova this morning she is now a best priced 6/1 for the Aus Open. We have bets at 16/1 and 14/1.

It pays to be one step ahead in this game and I notice that she is priced between 12/1 and 22/1 for the French Open. As she was out with injuries for seven months in 2011 I would not bet that far ahead without the protection of non-runner no bet. Both Paddy Power and Sky bet offer this concession.

I have therefore had 4 pts ew Kim Clijsters to win French Open @ 20/1 with Paddy Power.

If the price goes shortly after my modest bet I would advise the 16/1 with Skybet rather than 20/1 with a another firm that does not offer NRNB.

Let's be 'aving ya!

2012-01-04T20:51:00.001Z

As Delia would say. Actually Delia's outfit are going to be one of my three against the field in this year's FA Cup.

It may seem an unsound strategy to look beyond the traditional "big four" when trying to find the FA Cup winner. One of Man U, Arsenal, Liverpool and Chelsea has won the FA Cup in 14 of the last 16 seasons. The exceptions are Man C last year and Portsmouth in 2008. It could be significant that these are recent victories. In addition Man U have drawn fellow table toppers Man C and could therefore be out of the competition in the first round.

My three selections will be backed each-way at big prices so that achieving a losing finalist would produce a significant overall profit. (Each-way 1/2 odds to reach final). In 11 of the 16 finals mentioned above the losing finalists have NOT been one of the traditional big four.

The three teams that I have chosen are all Premiership sides which:

1. Are unlikely to be contenders for a top four league position
2. Look to be safe from relegation
3. Are not involved in the Europa Cup

Norwich City - 100/1
Doing quite well in the top flight with 25pts from 20 matches. Have home fixture against Burnley.

I have had 1pt ew Norwich @ 100/1 with Paddy Power

Sunderland - 50/1
Martin O'Neill has done brilliantly in the short time he has been in charge. The team is playing with a new level of confidence. Will play away at Peterborough.

I have had 2pts ew Sunderland @ 50/1 with Coral

Newcastle - 40/1
Surprised many people (including me) with their solid performances to date. One negative will be the absence of our Premiership TGS selection Demba Ba, who will be missing for the African Nations Cup - but may only miss one fixture should Newcastle progress. First match at home to lowly Blackburn.

I have had 1.5pts ew Newcastle @ 40/1 with Coral

Total FA Cup investment nine points.

WTA Brisbane

2012-01-03T17:17:00.000Z

Watched Kimmy beat Ana this morning. She won the first set 6-1, lost the second by the same score and then recovered from 0-3 to win the final set 6-3. She needs match practice so this was probably a good thing ahead of the first grand slam. She is now no better than 10/1 for the Aus Open.

The Brisbane draw has rather a lopsided look to it with the first three in the betting, SW, KC and SS all in the top half. This has prompted me to have a close look at the bottom half of the draw in order to consider an each-way poke.

If tonight's matches go to form, the bottom half quarter-finals will be Janko v Schiavone and Pav v Petko. Janko leads FS 4-2 HTH and Petko is 1-0 HTH against Pav. Therefore it could be a Janko v Petko semi-final. Petko leads Janko H2H 2-1 although Janko won decisively in their latest meeting. Petko is 6/1 to win the tournament whereas Janko is 10/1. I understand Janko's off season training has gone well so she is my pick at the larger odds and indeed an attractive 5/1 to reach the final. (Hopefully against Kimmy!)

I have had 2pts ew Janko to win Brisbane @ 10/1 with Paddy Power 1/2 odds 1,2 (Also available with Boyles and VC). Four points invested.

US politics - Republican Nominee

2012-01-02T09:53:00.001Z

Everyone keeps saying a candidate is going to come out of the woodwork to challenge Mitt Romney to the Republican nomination but they keep falling by the wayside. Now Rick Santorum is making a run and could go close at the first caucus in Iowa. Don't worry about his politics - you don't really want to know. They're a strange lot these Republicans. Romney does look beatable though despite being 1/3 for the overall gig.

I have had 3pts @ 18/1 Rick Santorum to be Republican Nominee with Stan James (also available with W Hill but 22/1 with VC for you lucky Chandler punters).

Rick has spent a huge amount of time in Iowa and it seems to be paying off. Win or lose the Iowa result could give him some momentum going forward.

First bets of the new year!

2012-01-01T22:55:00.001Z

Brisbane tennis

For the first bet placed in 2012 I am going for a tennis match which is scheduled to be played around 2:00am UK time:

2.5pts Melinda Czink to beat Vania King @ 2.8 with Boylesports

Although King is the higher ranked player, Czink holds a 3-0 HTH. The three matches they have played were on hard, grass and clay and King has never won a set. They haven't played for a couple of years but you'd think the betting would be a little closer.

Aiden O'Brien UK classic winners 2012

If you follow racing you will know what a strong hand AOB has in this year's classics. Well he does on paper at least. I've had the following rather optimistic bets today:

AOB to have four UK classic winners, 2pts @ 12/1 with Ladbrokes

AOB to have all five UK classic winners, 0.5pt @ 40/1 with Ladbrokes.

If VC will allow you to bet with them then you can get 50/1 the full house. Good luck in getting that to more than 10p.

Total stakes today 5pts.

2011 results

2012-01-01T16:02:00.000Z

Results for 2011 are as follows:

Stakes 847 Returns 977 Profit 130 = 15.4% Full details: http://mikequigley.co.uk/Blog-bets-2011.php

Winning bets settled in 2011 include:

Danny Graham TGS, Championship W33/1
Kvitova, Wimbledon W25/1
England to win Ashes 3-1 W16/1
Sizing Europe, Cheltenham W14/1
Little Mix, X-factor W14/1
Djoko, Wimbledon W12/1
Villas-Boas, next Chelsea mgr W12/1

Total results for 2009/10/11:

Stakes 1,532 Returns 2,239 Profit 707 = 46.2%

Good luck in 2012.

Federer

2011-12-30T01:11:00.001Z

Completed a 17-match winning streak when winning the London ATP finals in November. During that unbeaten run his service statistics were particularly impressive. His first serve % points won averaged 83.2%. His second service % points won during this streak was equally impressive at 58.0%. He held serve 93.1% of the time during this period. These are terrific numbers.

As we go into 2012 the question is can he continue this renaissance or will age finally catch up with him? I think he may have one good year left, despite not winning a GS in 2011.

The news that Nadal has a nagging shoulder injury, for which he will take several weeks off in February, has prompted me to lay out a few pounds on the Swiss from our November winnings as follows:

5pts Federer to win Australian Open @ 3/1 with Totesport
3pts Federer to win exactly two GS tourneys in 2012 @ 14/1 with William Hill
1pt Federer to win exactly three GS tourneys in 2012 @ 80/1 with William Hill
0.5pt Federer to win all four GS tourneys in 2012 @ 200/1 with William Hill

Total invested 9.5pts

Djoko is likely to be a huge threat in 2012 of course but Murray has yet to win a set in a GS final so should be discounted (I believe) for yet another year.

King George

2011-12-26T08:51:00.001Z

Early disappointment in the big race as Diamond Harry has been pulled out leaving only seven runners. No rule4 deduction on our price but now only the first two places for our each-way bet.....

King George VI Chase 15:10 Kempton

2011-12-26T08:25:00.001Z

The King George is a great race today for each-way bets as all bookmakers offer 1/4 odds 1,2,3 and only eight runners go to post. But which horse is the value?

I have taken a chance with Captain Chris who tackles 3m for the first time.

I have had 1pt ew Captain Chris @ 8/1 with Paddy Power (also available with Ladbrokes) both BOG; and with Coral (no BOG insurance).

SPOTY

2011-12-22T19:54:00.001Z

Other than a small ew bet on Strauss nearly a year ago I've not got involved in SPOTY on the blog. That bet was @ 33/1 and he is now 250/1 to win it! So perhaps not much of a chance of a return there. I see that the Racing Post recommended Strauss @ 35/1 for the top3 today and I would not argue with that although only 25/1 is available now as I write.

Cavendish looks a very short priced favourite to me - around the 4/11 mark. I don't think he will necessarily endear himself to the viewing public tonight. I have just laid him @1.43 on betfair - so getting close to 5/2 NOT to win SPOTY. I've even had a little lay bet @1.05 for the top3. That is 20/1 NOT to be in the top3.

I really don't have an opinion on who might win. However, I think it's ridiculous having three golfers in the final ten. Guys who stroll about in sweaters but never break into a sweat. I don't consider them sportsmen I'm afraid.

So these are my thoughts. No recommended bets although the best value is probably a lay on betfair of Cavendish around 1.43 or shorter.

Blackburn Rovers

2011-12-19T17:21:00.001Z

Blackburn Rovers look like they are in real trouble now. The manager, Steve Kean, said that relegation was impossible just a few weeks ago. He then declared he was looking forward to three "nice" fixtures against fellow strugglers Sunderland, West Brom and Bolton. Well he's lost the first two of these matches - both 2-1 - and now faces a pivotal fixture against the bottom side Bolton tomorrow.

There are constant rumours that he will be sacked - win or lose - after tomorrow's match. The owners - Venky's - don't seem to know what they are doing either and the fans are against them too hence the atmosphere at the match could be very hostile tomorrow. Money is tight and apparently Barclays are seeking £10m to shore up the balance sheet.

Even if Blackburn don't lose tomorrow it will be a barren Xmas with away fixtures at Liverpool and Man Utd on the horizon. I'm going for Armageddon, starting with:

2pts win Bolton @ 11/4 to win at Blackburn tomorrow (Paddy P) - also available totesport, VC, betfred.

And also:

5pts win Blackburn to finish rock bottom in Prem League @ 3/1 with William Hill

UEFA League draws

2011-12-16T16:06:00.001Z

Our 14/1 Bayern Munich for the Champions' League looks a decent bet given that they have drawn Basel in the round of 16 today. They are now a best priced 11/2. It would be a major shock if they failed to make the last eight, then it's down to the draw again.

In the Europa League, Udinese have been given a reasonable draw but the price we took to win the event is little changed, partly because of the Manchester teams parachuting into the contest.

I think that Valencia, who play Stoke in the next round, represent some value at 14/1 in the Europa League with skybet and VC. The latter will lay me nothing as they refuse to take my bets and skybet's permitted maximum stake was £1.79 win or each-way. The current betfair price is 15.5 so that is just below 14/1 when commission is deducted.

I therefore have had 2pts @ 14/1 Valencia with skybet for the Europa League. (The balance of my bet placed with betfair).

Kim Clijsters

2011-12-16T00:25:00.001Z

I think Kimmy could shorten up significantly. We are already on @ 16/1 and that is no longer available. She is going to Australia next week to acclimatise before playing Brisbane (also Serena's preferred warm-up tournament). Then it's on to Melbourne for the defence of her title. She describes herself as fitter than ever. Let's hope so as I have just placed:-

1.5pts ew Kim Clijsters @ 14/1 for Australian Open with William Hill

Total 3pts invested.

Kempton 7f 18:30; 6f 17:30

2011-12-15T09:54:00.000Z

Very strange market moves with our selection yesterday. Backed from 11/1 (r4) into 4/1 favourite. Then, close to the off, drifted rapidly on betfair back out to 10/1. Never put in the race/or seen with a chance.

Today my main bet is again in a 7f handicap. I like the look of Forks in 18:30 race. The Timeform top-rated four-year-old was a good winner at Lingfield last time out and the form is holding up well.

I have had 2.5pts win Forks @ 7/1 with William Hill (BOG)

In the Nursery (17:30) I have had 1pt win Sunrise Dance @ 12/1 with William Hill(BOG)

Kempton 7f 18:20

2011-12-14T08:44:00.001Z

Just one bet today at Kempton:

2pts win Dunseverick @ 11/1 William Hill (BOG)

X-factor results

2011-12-12T09:54:00.001Z

Another good result for us with Little Mix winning the final last night. From a betting perspective it has been a very profitable series for us. We had five blogged bets in total: W14/1, W13/2, W3/1, W10/11 and L14/1. Stakes 15.5pts; Returns 58.2pts; Profit 42.7pts.

The quality of acts was probably the worst ever. But this, of course, is of no consequence to us as we are only interested in making money on the event. In fact while the final was taking place I went to see a documentary film about the life and music of Joni Mitchell, an artist that has captivated me since hearing her first album in 1968. I think I can safely say that no-one will be listening to Little Mix in 43 years' time. I hesitate to say even in 43 weeks' time - because with Simon Cowell pulling the strings, they could still be conning the teen market this time next year.

As Paul Weller wrote: "the public gets what the public wants...".

Or do they? What makes the event such an attractive betting proposition is the way the contestants are manipulated by the producers. Everything including song choice, sound production, costumes, running order, judges comments and VT footage is carefully crafted to influence the voting public either negatively or positively. By following these signals one can often read the way the producers are thinking. In the case of the winners, it was clear from around halfway through the series that they would do whatever they could to get Little Mix to the final.

tp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kLNF32bKed0&feature=youtube_gdata_player

Kimmy is back!

2011-12-09T22:59:00.001Z

Well perhaps. Been off the track since August and was unable to defend her US Open title as a consequence. Now she has had just one (exhibition) match in which she took out Woza in straight sets. Yes it was in Belgium, but it signals her return to fitness and an attempt on the horizon to defend her Aus Open title. Apparently her serve worked really well, which is crucial.

2012 has been confirmed as her last season and although she wants to do well in the Olympics and at Wimbledon you cannot rule out her defending her Aus title.

In any event I'm happy to get involved with Ladbrokes' 16/1 for the first GS.

I have had 3pts win @ 16/1 Clijsters to win Australian Open with Ladbrokes.

Kempton 6f 18:30; 19:00

2011-12-08T10:25:00.001Z

Two selections in the last two races at Kempton tonight, both of which are dropped in class. The first, Taajub, actually finished runner-up in the 2009 Gimcrack. Drawn well and ridden by Seb Sanders, who seems to know how to trap fast in these sprints.

The second selection is Slatey Hen, the top weight in the lucky last. The bets are:

1pt win Taajub @ 8/1 with William Hill
1pt win Slatey Hen @ 8/1 with William Hill
0.5pt each way double above prices. All prices BOG.

(Both prices also available @ totesport)

Total 3pts staked.

Southwell 11f, 15:00

2011-12-06T11:14:00.000Z

X-factor is shaping up well for us now after a poor start. My first selection never made the live stages but Little Mix has turned that around with the each-way bet landed as the final three has been decided. They are now 11/10 favourites to win the event on Sunday and we have a chance of 14/1 and 13/2 returns.

Misha finished fourth as we anticipated thus landing our 10/11 elimination wager.

The racing does not make a lot of appeal today, however I have invested 1pt win Ay Tay Tate @ 6/1 with William Hill (BOG) in the 15:00 Southwell.

Tiger Woods 2012

2011-12-02T23:51:00.001Z

We made a few pounds when the man was on the way down. In fact the first ever bet recommended on the blog, on 8 December 2009, was 12pts on Tiger not to win a major in 2010, a winning start of course.

Now he looks very much as if he is on the way back so I've had a couple of bets in two 2012 majors as follows:

6pts win Tiger Woods to win the 2012 Masters @ 7/1 with Coral (also available with blue square/888)

6pts win Tiger Woods to win the 2012 Open Championship with Unibet @ 15.0

Total 12pts staked

X Factor elimination

2011-12-02T09:40:00.001Z

According to reliable sources there will be no sing-off for the next elimination. Therefore you have to think that Misha B will go on Sunday as she has already been in the bottom two on three previous occasions before being saved by the judges. Clearly she is not popular with the voting public.

I have had 5.5pts Misha B to be next elimination @ 10/11 with Paddy Power (also available with Ladbrokes).

Kempton 6f 18:30,19:00,19:30

2011-11-30T13:28:00.001Z

Three selections this evening at Kempton as follows:

18:30 1pt win Perfect Act 9/1 Ladbrokes
19:00 2pts win Fenella Fudge 4/1 Ladbrokes
19:30 2pts win Doctor Hillary 9/2 Ladbrokes

Plus 1pt e.w. treble at the above prices. These are all best odds guaranteed races so if they start at bigger prices we are on at SP.

Total staked seven points.

Venus Williams

2011-11-29T15:26:00.001Z

I am sure you are all aware that the last time Venus Williams played an official match it was in the US Open. Minutes before she was due to play her second-round match she withdrew from the tournament due to an autoimmune disease with which she had recently been diagnosed.

She returned to the court this week to play an exhibition match against Serena. The form will tell us little but she did beat her younger sister 6-4 7-6. She has given a commitment to play a full season in 2012 starting with Auckland in January (after playing only 11 matches in 2011). Not surprisingly she has dropped to No. 104 in the world.

Can she, like some before her (Seles, Henin, Clijsters) make a successful comeback? Could she win another grand slam? She will play an exhibition doubles with Serena against Schiavone/Pennetta this weekend so this may give us another clue to her well being. Certainly age is not on her side and she could easily be drawn against, say, Kvitova in the first round of the Australian Open.

Nevertheless I have had 1pt win @ 50.0 Venus Williams with Unibet for Australian Open.

She has never won the Australian (or the French for that matter). All her GS wins have come at Wimbledon (5) and the US Open (2). She's not won the latter for a decade but the last of her SW19 wins came in 2008.

I have therefore had 2pts each way Venus @ 25/1 with Paddy Power for Wimbledon

You can get 33/1 Venus with VC for Wimbledon but VC will no longer lay any of my tennis bets and has closed my account. However the important advantage of PP is that it is NRNB: a condition - as far as I know that only applies to Skybet, PP and Betdaq in outright tennis markets. So if she was unfortunate enough to be taken ill again our Wimbledon bet would be refunded

Total staked five points.

2011 Review

2011-11-28T16:58:00.001Z

A nice 30.5 points overall profit from the Federer tournament win at the O2 yesterday. The Swiss has been on a roll since the US Open and was the clear form player coming into the event. This takes our profit for the calendar year to over 100 points (13.4%). With a month to go to the year end we still have two good value bets on Little Mix for X-Factor. They are 11/8 favourites as I write. All other unsettled bets should roll over to 2012. Full details of all 2011 betting activity can be found here:

http://www.mikequigley.co.uk/Blog-bets-2011.php

One bet that's not looking so good is Liverpool for Premiership top four. We took a rather skinny looking 11/10 and even after two good performances in beating Chelsea and then drawing with Man City they are available at 13/8 today. Their fixtures in the run up to Xmas look reasonable so hopefully they can move up the table.

Leaving aside the Manchester teams, we are looking at any two from Liverpool, Chelsea, Tottenham, Arsenal and possibly Newcastle to make the top four. Today I have had a very speculative 1pt win Newcastle @ 25/1 for Premiership top four with Ladbrokes. (Also available with Coral and Stan James).

ATP London update - 2

2011-11-25T22:26:00.001Z

Berdych duly beat Ferrer tonight but not by the score I envisaged. However this means our three outright selections have reached the last four. We only have a small bet on Berdych - one point @ 29/1 - but importantly his presence in the last four means that Djoko is on his way home. In fact in my first post on this tournament I suggested we should avoid the world numbers one, two and three because of their busy seasons and recent injury concerns. Incredibly none has reached the semi-finals.

Even though he has a very difficult match ahead we have to have a saver on feisty Ferrer. He will be back tomorrow to play Federer at 14:00 in the first semi-final. The H2H? Just the 11-0 to the inform Swiss player. The other semi is at 20:00 - Tsonga v Berdych ( H2H 0-1)

Let's first review our potential profits (16pts portfolio so far):-

Federer 12pts @ 3/1 - potential return 48pts; profit 32pts
Tsonga 2pts @ 14/1, subsequent 1pt @ 12/1 - potential return 43pts; profit 27pts
Berdych 1pt @ 29/1 - potential return 30pts; profit 14pts

I have just placed 1.5pts @ 16/1 Ferrer with Ladbrokes. Obviously a Ferrer tournament win now returns 25.5pts for an overall eight point profit on the tournament. (Those of you with Sportingbet accounts can get 18/1 Ferrer however I do not bet with that company).

Our revised tournament profit will now be as follows:

Federer 30.5pts; Tsonga 25.5pts; Berdych 12.5pts and Ferrer 8pts.

Enjoy the semis and the final. Let's hope for that Paris repeat - Federer v Tsonga final!

ATP London update

2011-11-25T13:14:00.001Z

Good news from O2 last night as Tsonga defeated Nadal to progress to the semi-final alongside Federer. We still have a chance of all three of our players making the last four. Berdych plays Ferrer this evening and will go through to the semis if he wins in straight sets. He can also go through if he wins in three but that will depend on the outcome between the two Serbs this afternoon.

I would have gone skint a long time ago if I'd always backed players or teams that "needed to win" against those that didn't. However if Berdych was to win the first set against Ferrer tonight (an even money chance) there is the possibility that Ferrer might then take his foot of the gas with Saturday's semi in mind and a certain place therein. For these reasons I have had 3pts win @ 5/2 Berdych to beat Ferrer 2-0 sets with William Hill. (Sportingbet has a slightly higher price of 3.6 if you are able to get that).

Once the final four is known late this evening I will look and see whether we need to place another outright bet to protect our 16pt investment in the outright market.

Kempton 18:40, 19:10

2011-11-24T12:02:00.001Z

Two small bets at Kempton today. in the 6f race, 18:40, 2pts win Sweet Ovation @ 5/1 Skybet (also SJ and Coral) and in the 7f race, 19:10 1pt ew Roninski @ 14/1 William Hill (BOG)

Total 4pts staked

Big Jo

2011-11-22T18:05:00.001Z

I was impressed with the way Tsonga played today, particularly in the second set. This court is certainly very slow and you could argue it suits someone like Tsonga who has so much power to hit through his opponent. Good serving too with a 140 mph serve included. If he beats Nadal in his last match (11/8?) he should qualify for the semis. If he should qualify alongside Federer there would even be the chance of a repeat of the Paris indoor final and, of course, a repeat of the opening match here in London which Fed won 2-1.

All that's a long way off but I have taken a further 1pt win Tsonga @ 12/1 to win the tournament with Paddy Power. Price available with several other firms.

Our bet on Berdych to beat Mugray is of course void as the Scot has just retired from the tournament.

Mugray

2011-11-22T11:36:00.001Z

Mugray looked in a bad way during his straight sets defeat by Ferrer. If he is to continue in the competition he will play Tomas Berdych Wednesday. The latter was beaten in a final set tie-break against Djoko last night. He held a match point during the match but could not convert.

There is a possibility of course that Mugray could retire during his next match if he does not retire beforehand. The H2H is 4-1 Berdych who has won the last four encounters.

His serve looked very poor against the Spaniard so I have had 8pts @ 11/10 Berdych to beat Mugray with Ladbrokes. It is important to have the bet with a bookmaker that requires one point of the match to be played for the result to stand. To my knowledge these bookmakers are Ladbrokes, Blue Square, 888 and Coral.

Mix-ed results

2011-11-20T11:25:00.001Z

Well I guess I underestimated Airdrie United's fire power. Went up to 8-0 correct score but incredibly they won 11-0. Glad it wasn't 9-0 that would have been worse.

Elsewhere there was more hyping of Little Mix on xfactor. I note the producers even got David Walliams to declare that they are his favoured act. They are 3/1 second favourite as I write so we certainly have value punts at 14/1 each-way and 13/2.

Federer starts the defence of his London crown this afternoon. The 3/1 and 5/2 has long gone and he is no better than 15/8 before a ball is struck in anger.

Recovery mission!

2011-11-19T13:56:00.001Z

The correct score double bet is already a loser as it is 1-1 after 20 minutes in the Partick game. This follows hot on the heals of New Leyf being caught on the line by Fallon to deny us a decent pick up last night at Kempton.

Airdrie kick-off at 15:00 so there is an opportunity for some some small singles as follows:

Airdrie 5-0 16/1 Ladbrokes 0.5pt
Airdrie 6-0 33/1 Boyles 0.25pt
Airdrie 7-0 40/1 Boyles/Bet365 0.25pt
Airdrie 8-0 80/1 Ladbrokes 0.25pt

Total 1.25pts staked.

Scottish FA Cup

2011-11-18T20:41:00.001Z

Could be some cricket scores in a couple of the Scottish FA Cup matches. Airdrie and Partick are both 1/6 to win their respective matches tomorrow so I have played a speculative correct score double bet with Ladbrokes as follows:

5-0 16/1
6-0 25/1
7-0 33/1
8-0 80/1

Odds apply to both Airdrie United and Partick Thistle winning their respective matches by the scores shown.

The bet is 16 x 0.25pts correct score doubles with Ladbrokes.

Total staked 4pts.

Kempton 6f 17:05, 17:35

2011-11-18T09:03:00.001Z

Our 25/1 selection was on the premises a furlong out at Kempton yesterday but quickly dropped away.
Two more selections today at Kempton as follows.

1pt win Gap Princess @ 14/1 (17:05) with Ladbrokes (BOG)

2pts win New Leyf @ 13/2 (17:35) with Ladbrokes (BOG)

0.5pt ew double at the above prices (Ladbrokes)

Total 4pts staked.

Kempton 6f 17:50

2011-11-17T14:29:00.001Z

I am not particularly keen on the racing today. However am rather surprised at what a big price Sonko is trading at in the Nursery at 17:50. I guess it's possible he may not break quickly from his low draw which could then be a problem. However at this price I could not resist 1pt ew @ 25/1 Sonko with Will Hill (BOG)

Southwell 1m 4f 15:50

2011-11-15T14:08:00.001Z

I think it's possible that Gosforth Park could oblige under top weight at Southwell in the last. Won comfortably enough at the venue on 10 November and there has been some support today.

I have had 2pts win Gosforth Park @ 11/4 with William Hill (BOG)

Little Mix

2011-11-15T11:25:00.001Z

We already have a nice little each-way bet on the xfactor girl band at 14/1. They continue to be well supported this week and are as low as 5/1 in some places.

In the circumstances I think it is worth an additional 1pt win @ 13/2 Little Mix with 888.com (or Blue Sq). In what is increasingly looking like a poor year it is possible now that they could win.

ATP World Tour Finals - London

2011-11-12T18:16:00.001Z

The early prices have just been released for the men's final event of the season. It's an interesting market not least because three of the major contenders, Djoko, Mugray and Nadal have been carrying various injuries. I would be particularly worried about the world No1 Djoko and would stay well clear of the 7/2 or shorter put up by the major firms.

The holder, Federer, is a worthy favourite having won Basel indoors and is set to play the Paris indoor final tomorrow. He is therefore my main bet. I have added two small bets on outsiders who have both played well recently. My portfolio is as follows:-

12 pts win Federer @ 3/1 with Bet365
(5/2 is next best with Ladbrokes and W Hill if you cannot get this).
2 pts win Tsonga @ 14/1 with Stan James (also available with Bet365).
1 pt win Berdych @ 30.0 with Unibet.

Total stakes 15 pts.

England v Spain

2011-11-12T14:41:00.001Z

No horse racing bets today so I have taken an interest in tonight's friendly international.

Capello seems to be willing to take a few chances with an experimental England team. He will be heralded as a genius if he pulls it off and beats the world champions. Far more likely I think is that Spain will take England apart. I have had a couple of small correct bets as follows:

Spain to win 2-0 = 0.5pt win @ 8/1 William Hill
Spain to win 3-0 = 1pt win @ 18/1 Ladbrokes
Unquoted* score on betfair correct score market = 1pt win @ 10.5 Betfair

(*This bet will win if either team scores four or more goals)

Total staked 2.5pts

Kempton 6f 19:50

2011-11-10T12:15:00.001Z

I like the look of Qubuh in the final race at Kempton tonight. I have had 3pts @ 13/2 with Stan James as I think the price could contract.

Euro

2011-11-10T10:19:00.001Z

The Italian economy is on the edge with the debts approaching the point where the debts are not sustainable. Who know what's going to happen but you have to think that they are very likely to receive a Euro/IMF bailout. If they don't then surely the economy would collapse and they could then exit the euro.

I've therefore had two bets as follows:

Next country to receive EU/IMF bailout: Italy 8pts @ 2/1 with Stan James
First country to leave the euro: Italy 2pts @ 14/1 with Stan James ( 12/1 PP but only 7/2 WH).

Total staked 10 pts.

X-factor - Little Mix

2011-11-06T21:29:00.001Z

We have landed our 3/1 bet on Little Mix to be top group as the only other group still in the competition - The Risk - has been sent home tonight having finished bottom in the public vote. Our selection was given the "pimp" slot last night which clearly showed that the producers were intent on making them the favoured group.

The outright price of 14/1 we took each-way is now around half that price. May not be winner material but a strong chance of finishing in the frame as the producers would probably like a group in the final three and further promotional assistance looks likely.

Han - again

2011-11-03T18:34:00.001Z

Paul Hanagan has all but won the the jockeys' championship. As I write he is seven wins clear of S de Sousa with a couple of races to go at Wolverhampton this evening and then Friday and Saturday racing to close the season. He did us a big favour last year landing several bets up to 40/1. This year, as reigning champion, he was of course a much smaller price. However we have landed substantial wagers at 9/2 and 7/2 to increase significantly the 2011 profits.

I have updated our 2011 results with Paul H winnings. You can find the details here: http://www.mikequigley.co.uk/Blog-bets-2011.php

It means we are running at 10.92% profit in 2011 and an even more respectable 45.88% accumulatively since the blog bets service began in December 2009. We have won over 650 points in this time frame.

WTA - Bali - 2

2011-11-03T18:22:00.000Z

Well Vinci was rubbish today so that's one of our outright bets gone. The other one plays tomorrow afternoon (12 noon our time).

Ivanovic was fairly unimpressive in putting Vinci away (40% first serve success rate). I am going to take a chance and back the lump to beat the looker in the semi-final.

I have had 4pts win Petrova to beat Ivanovic @ 6/4 with Stan James. Their H2H is very close. Some sites say Ivanovic 6-5 whereas betfair stats say Petrova 7-5. What's not in doubt is Petrova has won the last two meetings. Therefore 6/4 is fair value to down the defending champion.

WTA - Bali

2011-11-03T00:09:00.001Z

The Bali tournament starts around 9:30am tomorrow morning. Bartoli is a worthy favourite on current form but I have had a couple of speculative bets on players at double figures.

First of all I have taken 12/1 Vinci who has had a terrific year. She plays Ivanovic in the first round and although the H2H is 4-2 in the Serb's favour, Vinci has won both matches that have been played in 2011. If she wins tomorrow she would play Petrova or Peng for a place in the final.

I have had 1.5pts ew Vinci @ 12/1 (1/3 odds 1,2) with Ladbrokes (also available with SJ).

In the top half of the draw I have gone for Hantuchova who plays Lisicki with whom she is 1-1. Lisicki beat DH in the Birmingham final (on grass of course) but the Slovakian is preferred back on a hard court. If she wins then she will probably meet Bartoli for a place in the final. Amazingly DH holds a 5-1 H2H with the French woman and that is another reason for taking a punt.

I have had 2pts win Hantuchova @ 12.0 with Unibet.

Total 5pts staked.

Andy Murray

2011-11-02T09:19:00.001Z

Andy Murray is on a terrific run having won three consecutive tournaments. However today he comes up against a player who has caused him problems in the past. The head to head with Robin Haase is 1-1 but in both matches Haase won the first set. Winning the first set and going on to lose is something that happens to Haase quite frequently.
I think the bet today is 2pts win Haase to win first set against Murray @ 5/1 with 888.com (or Blue Square).

X-Factor

2011-11-02T00:05:00.001Z

Two bets on this involving the girl group, once called Rythmix now called Little Mix

3pts win Little Mix to be top group @ 3/1 with Paddy Power (i.e. to finish in front of The Risk)

1.5pts ew Little Mix to win X-factor @ 14/1 with Paddy Power 1/5th odds 1,2,3.

Total six points staked.

Premiership TGS - it's 25/1 Ba

2011-11-01T08:20:00.002Z

The two players we've backed for TGS are not doing brilliantly. I've therefore decided to add a third player to our portfolio. One could make a case for one of the Man City strikers as they are scoring so many goals. But which one? The current scores are Dzeko nine, Aguero nine and Balotelli five. I think the latter could close the gap if he's not red carded too often.

Others in the shake up include Rooney (nine, short price) and Van Persie (ten, but never plays a full season because of injuries).

I think Demba Ba could be thereabouts. He is now on eight (from seven starts) following a hat-trick for Newcastle last night. There was rather an amusing story going around about him. He (allegedly) refused a fan an autograph. I would have more sympathy if his name was Jan Johannes Vennegoor of Hesselink but when you've just got to write "Ba" then it's unforgivable.

Anyway I have had 1.5pts ew Demba Ba @ 25/1 Prem TGS with Ladbrokes, 1/4 odds 1,2,3,4.

Three points staked.

Europa League

2011-10-30T18:10:00.000Z

I've decided to have a bet on the incredibly competitive Europa League. I like the look of Udinese who are currently top of Group I and favourite to win the group now having beaten Atletico Madrid in the last round. The latter are 12/1 to win this cup whereas Udinese can be backed at 22/1 or bigger.

Udinese have started well in Serie A (they won again today), lying third as I write just behind those great names Juventus and Milan. I have had 2pts win, 1pt place @ 22/1 Udinese with Stan James to win the Europa League. If you have a bwin account you can get 24/1 but it's a win only market.

Total stake 3pts.

WTA Istanbul

2011-10-28T13:30:00.001+01:00

I've been watching the Istanbul tournament this week and earning a few quid betting in-running on the televised matches. Having watched nearly every match I would be amazed if Petra Kvitova and Victoria Azarenka do not contest the final. They are by far the best players in the tournament.

The final round robin matches take place today. Kvitova plays Aggie today and should win on what we have seen to date. Aggie needs to win a minimum of one set to progress to the semi-finals. I think she might do that despite carrying a shoulder injury. Kvitova can have moments when she drifts out of a match and, of course, does not need to win the match to make the semis.

I have had 1pt win Kvitova to win today's match by 2-1 in sets @ 3/1 with William Hill.

Jockeys' Championship 3

2011-10-27T12:41:00.002+01:00

Well now it's a two horse race now as Fallon is out of the running. This is good news for us as he was our third best result after Hanagan and De Sousa. I'm pleased we stepped in with the latest bet of 16/1 De Sousa as he has narrowed the gap to be just five adrift of the champion. Hanagan is still in the box seat of course but you won't get bigger than 5/1 De Sousa this morning (Ladbrokes). One thing which may work against PH is the fact that he is scheduled to ride at Ayr on Saturday. The ground is already heavy with more rain forecast so it's not inconceivable that the meeting could be cancelled.

Talking of rain, I have just returned from racing in Galway where the ground was as heavy as I have ever seen. I was amazed that it wasn't called off.

As for today it's an ironic choice of bet. Fallon in the last at Kempton. He is well drawn. Field reduced to nine runners as I write but SJ still offering 9/1 the selection. 1pt win The Name Is Frank @ 9/1 with Stan James.

Yarmouth today

2011-10-18T09:21:00.001+01:00

An interesting day's racing today at Yarmouth. All three contenders for the jockeys' championship are in action. De Sousa has his last day in the saddle before his enforced absence kicks in tomorrow. He has ridden three winners since we backed him for the championship @ 16/1 whereas his rivals have drawn a blank. Consequently he is now no bigger than 8/1.It looks like Fallon has the best chance of scoring today. Let's hope he gets no more than one winner. De Sousa is now five ahead of Fallon in second place.

I'm having two small bets here today. 0.5pts ew Little Village @ 25/1 in the 17:20 and 0.25 pts ew Norcroft @ 25/1 in the 16:50 both with William Hill Both races 1/4 odds 1,2,3,4 but unfortunately will revert to first three should there be a non-runner. Total stake 1.5pts.

Jockeys' Championship 2

2011-10-15T22:04:00.002+01:00

Well this is not over yet. Both Paul H and Silvestre de S rode doubles today. Fallon drew a blank at Ascot (not surprisingly perhaps given his mounts). Paul's double was up at Catterick. S de S went to Wolverhampton this evening, after his Ascot commitments, to ride a double there. Interestingly neither PH or KF bothered to go on to the evening meeting. Even more surprisingly perhaps neither PH or KF ride at the only flat meeting tomorrow - Bath - where S de S has a few attractive mounts. Are PH and KF really committed to this race? Or does PH think he has done enough?

The standings tonight are PH 149 wins; S de S 142; KF 140.

Silvestre has four days' suspension to serve (starting 19/10) and that is partly why he is 16/1 against Fallon's best price of 7/2 despite being two wins ahead of him. The weather is set to change later in the week with Arctic conditions forecast to last up to ten days. Who knows if that's right but any abandoned racing could coincide with Silvestre's ban! We'll see.

We don't want to finish up losing -12.5pts on this market, should de Sousa pull it off. Unlikely perhaps but to cover this eventuality I have just had 3.5pts @ 16/1 de Sousa to win jockeys' championship with Coral. This price is also available at Betfred as I write.

Our potential profit on this market is now:

Hanagan + 55pts

de Sousa + 43.5pts

Fallon + 23pts

I can relax now knowing we will win on the event. I'm off to Galway for a bit of racing later in the week. I hope it's not snowing there!

Ascot: Champions' day

2011-10-14T20:55:00.002+01:00

What a tremendous day's racing we have in prospect at Ascot. Everyone would like to see Frankel win the QE11 Stakes "for the good of racing". However I have been tempted to take him on as we have a "dead eight" field, which is terrific for each way betting - provided of course there is not a non-runner.

I am still cursing myself for not backing Dream Ahead e.w. against the odds on Goldikova in the Prix De La Foret (on Arc day). That day there were eight runners and it was 10/1 bar two. Dream Ahead won @ 7/2.

Tomorrow they bet 1/3 Frankel, 6/1 Excelebration, 7/1 Immortal Verse and 33/1 bar three. My choice is the filly Immortal Verse and I have had 2pts ew @ 7/1 with Paddy Power 1/4 odds 1,2,3.

In the Champion Stakes I like the look of the lightly raced Dubai Prince with Frankie Dettori up. I think this could be one of tomorrow's gambles. I have had 3pts win Dubai Prince @ 8/1 with William Hill (BOG)

Total stake seven points.

Aggie Radwanska

2011-10-10T19:25:00.001+01:00

The Polish number one is much improved of late having just won back to back tournaments in the Far East. She has always been seen very much as a counter puncher, and in many ways she still is, although she looks to be getting the measure of some of the top players. She could be in the top five before too long. She may need to hit the ball a bit harder to reach the peak but it all augurs well for Aggie in 2012.

Naturally the bookmakers have reacted by cutting her in price to win the first grand slam in 2012. She is now a top priced 40/1 with skybet for the Australian Open. That could be worth playing however skybet would only lay me 25p ew. Yet another illustration as to why I shall be retiring from this price chasing game. Bookmakers will not lay bets to anyone who has a hint of a successful strategy. There are not many bookmakers betting on the French Open but a few have Wimbledon books.

Aggie has a grass court tournament to her name as she won Eastbourne in 2008 before reaching the quarter final of Wimbledon (where she was beaten by Serena). She reached the same stage at Wimbledon in 2009 and then fell to Venus.I had a small bet just now with William Hill: Aggie Radwanska to win Wimbledon 2012, 1pt ew @ 100/1 and they immediately halved her price. Not a coincidence. Should you wish to follow me in on this highly speculative long term wager the price is still available at Blue Square and 888.com as I write.

Newmarket Cesarewitch

2011-10-08T10:36:00.000+01:00

An intriguing race with bookmakers going 14/1 the field as I write. Well William Hill is going 14/1 the field anyway. Other bookmakers have cut their prices under pressure from punters backing the Pricewise selections Sentry Duty and Mount Athos. However I am going for the lightly raced Keys despite the potentially poor draw in stall 24. He has been saved for this race following comfortably wins over 2m at Ascot and Newbury in July. With Richard Hughes in the saddle we have one of the best judges of pace in the game so hopefully he can ease his way through the field from his unpromising starting position.I have had 2pts win Keys @ 15/1 with William Hill. In fact I have placed the bet through the Racing Post IPad/IPhone application so in the very unlikely event that Keys wins by more than three lengths we will be paid out at 30/1. Here's hoping!

Jockeys' championship

2011-10-04T23:12:00.001+01:00

Paul Hanagan was a substantial contributor to our 577 points profit in 2010 thanks to bets at 40/1. This year his winning the jockeys' championship could also result in a profitable year for us. However currently we are winning only nine points ytd. Unfortunately I think there is a real chance now of Paul being caught by Fallon who is just seven wins behind. Although the Irishman has a two-day ban next week, he appears to be pulling out all the stops to overhaul the current champion.

With just one month to go I think we need to hedge our position. We have staked 44.5 points on the event (including a 4pt ew handicap bet on PH which is touch and go for a place). We already have bets on the three jockeys that can win. Assuming the handicap bet is a loser, our potential profits stand at:

Hanagan +78.5pts; De Sousa +7.5pts; Fallon -18.5pts.

Therefore I am having a maximum 20pts win @ 9/4 Fallon with Paddy Power. This price is available with seven other bookmakers tonight (only Ladbrokes differ by quoting 7/4). I have chosen PP because of the possibility of a concession (eg if it was a dead-heat they might payout on both in full!). I have assumed De Sousa is too far behind to overtake both his opponents.

The revised position is now as follows:

Hanagan +58.5pts; Fallon +26.5pts; De Sousa -12.5pts.

If you've been following the bets on my website you'll know why it has become much more difficult to win. If you are new to the blog and do not hold the substantial winning positions on Hanagan I would not recommend that you have a maximum bet on Fallon. However he is worth a bet @ 9/4 to a small stake even if you are not involved in the jockey portfolio.

Bet record can be found here: http://mikequigley.co.uk/Blog-bets-2011.php

Bad day at the office

2011-10-04T11:06:00.001+01:00

Well it would have been if I went to an office. Sunday a bit of a nightmare with two losers in the Arc. Only considered those drawn 1-6 so rather gutted to miss the winner which was a decent price and nicely drawn in two. Things did not get any better when Melanie failed to get through to the live stages of x-factor despite very good leaks to the contrary (including the Irish Independent).Just a small interest for me on the sand at Southwell (17:50) today. I have had one pt win Needwood Park @ 18/1 Ladbrokes (bog). If you are "lucky" enough to get a bet with bet £3.65p you can get 20/1 as I write.

Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe

2011-09-30T21:07:00.000+01:00

Another terrific race is in prospect and as usual there are sure to be be plenty of hard luck stories in what is a large competitive field. It's possible that Sunday's sorry tales could include one or both of the current market leaders: So You Think (drawn 14) and Sarafina (drawn 13). History shows that double-digit drawn horses are disadvantaged. As a result I am going to oppose these top contenders with two well-draw horses. Both my selections should enjoy the good ground which is forecast to firm up in the next 48-hours.I have had 2pts win Masked Marvel (drawn 5) @ 14/1 with William Hill (bog). Sure to get every yard of the trip in what could be a fast run race. Watch the PMU odds as he could start a bigger price in Paris. Also 1pt win Hiruno D'Amour (drawn 1) @ 14/1 with Ladbrokes (bog). Ran a good prep race behind Sarafina in Prix Foy on 11 Sept, his first race since May. Unlikely to be better odds on PMU because of fanatical on-course Japanese support. Total staked 3pts.

X Factor

2011-09-27T08:25:00.000+01:00

We have it on reasonable authority this morning that Dublin girl Melanie McCabe has reached the live stage of X-factor. Therefore I have had 3pts win @ 14/1 Melanie to win X-factor with William Hill.

Champions' League

2011-09-26T18:08:00.000+01:00

The difficulty in placing bets at advertised prices continues. Today I decided to place 4pts each-way on Bayern Munich for the Champions' League @ 14/1 (1/2 odds 1,2). I have divided my stakes amongst Ladbrokes, Stan James, 888.com and skybet.

In the Bundesliga Bayern Munich started with a shock 1-0 defeat at home (Aug 7). Since then they are 6/6 in the league with 21 goals scored and none conceded. In their three Champions' L matches (inc. premliminary rounds) they are 3/3 with five goals scored and none conceded. Therefore 26 scored none conceded in all nine matches since the defeat.

Bets on now, total stake 8pts.

Full record of bets posted here: http://mikequigley.co.uk/Blog-bets-2011.php